Robert Lucas Jr.

Lore & Background

Lucas was born in Yakima, Washington, as the eldest child of Robert Emerson Lucas and Jane Templeton Lucas. His parents ran an ice creamery that failed during the Great Depression, prompting the family to move to Seattle. He earned a BA in history in 1959 from the University of Chicago, then briefly attended the University of California, Berkeley, as a graduate student before returning to Chicago for a PhD in economics in 1964. His dissertation, on labor and capital in U.S. manufacturing, was supervised by H. Gregg Lewis and Dale Jorgenson. He studied economics on 'quasi-Marxist' grounds, believing economics was the true driver of history.

After graduation, Lucas taught at Carnegie Mellon University until 1975, then returned to the University of Chicago. He was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1980, the National Academy of Sciences in 1981, and the American Philosophical Society in 1997. He married Rita Cohen, with whom he had two sons; the couple divorced in the 1980s, with a clause entitling Cohen to half of any Nobel prize winnings awarded before October 31, 1995. He later married Nancy Stokey, with whom he collaborated on papers on growth theory, public finance, and monetary theory.

Reader's Guide

Lucas's most influential contribution was incorporating rational expectations into dynamic macroeconomic models, providing theoretical foundations for the long-run neutrality of money and explaining the Phillips curve correlation without implying a policy trade-off. His 1976 Lucas critique challenged Keynesian macroeconomic models by arguing that relationships observed in the economy could change in response to policy shifts, spurring the development of new classical macroeconomics and a drive toward microeconomic foundations. He also developed the Uzawa–Lucas model of human capital accumulation, the Lucas paradox regarding capital flows to developing countries, and contributed to endogenous growth theory with Paul Romer. His 2003 statement that the 'central problem of depression-prevention has been solved' preceded the Great Recession. N. Gregory Mankiw characterized him as 'the most influential macroeconomist of the last quarter of the 20th century,' and in 2020 he ranked as the 10th most cited economist globally.

Did You Know?

• Lucas originally studied history and pursued economics on 'quasi-Marxist' grounds, believing economics was the true driver of history.
• His divorce from Rita Cohen included a clause entitling her to half of his Nobel prize winnings if awarded before October 31, 1995, which occurred.
• He stated in 2003 that the 'central problem of depression-prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes,' about five years before the Great Recession.
• His papers are housed at the Rubenstein Library at Duke University.

Notable Quotes (Wikiquote)

"Robert E. Lucas, "The Death of Keynesian Economics", in Issues and Ideas (Winter 1980)." — Robert Lucas Jr. "I guess everyone is a Keynesian in a foxhole." — Robert Lucas Jr. "Robert E. Lucas, to Justin Fox, quoted in Bob Lucas on the comeback of Keynesianism (2008)." — Robert Lucas Jr. "For policy, the central fact is that Keynesian policy recommendations have no sounder basis, in a scientific sense, than recommendations of non-Keynesian economists or, for that matter, non-economists." — Robert Lucas Jr.